It
was three difficult days.The reason was that my biological clock was
upset and traded in different times than those I usually trade.
The first trade I took was in 16/9/2015.
I have lost the bullish breakout(sleeping) and attempted to catch a bounce in resistance in higher time frames in GBPJPY.
The
breakout was a valid signal with retracement offered 170 pips plus.As
you remembered on 15-9-2015 I was trading in the Tokyo session.
The gbpjpy train passed over me and the cost was -11 pips. Closed the platform for the rest of European session.
Late at night in the closing of New York ,I have a short signal and I am attempting to fade the great bullish move.
First attempt 17-9-2015 till next day at 10,54 European EST time = -20 pips.
Second attempt 11,30 retracement to short signal until 13.44 =-20
Third attempt double top 30 min after DOW open till 20.55 = -20
Forth attempt same day 21.30 till 21,38 based on divergence= -20
Total for both pairs - 91 pips
Switching to gbpjpy short in 22.00 till 04,03 next morning . Total +139 pips
139 pips -91 loosing pips=48 pips net for the three days
I
didn't trade at all on Friday to relax from the stress of the previous
days.Counter trend trades are among forex scalping techniques that are
very dangerous and new traders must avoid at all costs.
When
to close forex trading positions? The most of the times I close open
positions around London close.I sleep better at nights.
Rarely as yesterday I had open position during the Tokyo session.
In these cases I close them few minutes before Frankfurt opens.Reversals and stop hunting will follow I don't want to be in.
Yesterday trading was difficult for the three pairs I watch.
GBPUSD produced a nice signal with over 150 pips move south but with no retracement.
EURJPY produced a long signal with retracement but took in demo only.
Finally
GBPJPY was ranging all day and since I was waiting for a breakout a
took the retracement of a short signal which generated in DOW open.
Trade
went bad and lost 25 pips. Left the charts open and found a pivotal
point, a third touch in the upper area of the gbpjpy range and took an
intraday trade with stable stop approx 20.30 EST European time.
This trade was left open during Tokyo session and produced 48 pips.
We made 23 net pips for 15 of September and closed it 20 minutes before Frankfurt open.
The three pairs we watch every day with remarks and trades
Consolidation and breakout is one of the most profitable trades you can take in any financial instrument.
The
problem is to find the real breakout or you will be caught in range .As
I have predicted on Friday post GBPJPY would break in the next session.
So with patience I was waiting for a signal from my forex scalping software in the European session today.
After
the fresh signal I wait for a retracement and retracement came.I
entered in the most safe spot but the pair scared me initially because
it continued to climb and gave opposite signal.
The higher time
frame chart- which carries my swing trading system on it-was in pivotal
point.Either it would break the pivotal point and collapse or it will
bounce from the pivotal point and resume the bullish trend.
I was
undecided what to do, close in breakeven or continue in the
trade.Finally after 29 minutes gbpjpy moved fast in +12 pips and close
my first scalping target.Since I was waited for a breakout I converted
the trade to intraday by canceling the trailing stop ,entering a stable
stop in 92 and left the trade with 1/3 of the position to see what it
will bring.
I have opened the platform again 30 minutes after the DOW open and the trade was in +101 pips.
I decided to leave it open until London close and keep the strategy wait and see.
Twelve minutes after the London close the pair was still in no mans land giving me 100 pips and I closed everything for the day.
I have wrote everything to video as usual ,enjoy
The three pairs I watch every day with trades and remarks on them
GBPJPY
Scalping
went well today.Initially I have started with a fresh signal in eurjpy
.The signal came up some minutes before London open.
I took the retracement and scalping target in 2/3 of the position came in three minutes. Ideal forex scalping duration time.
Then
the pair moved very slowly in the next hour and a half, lost my
patience and close it in +3 pips for the rest of 1/3 position.
Wrong decision since the target I was aiming came in the next one hour.
The
second trade I took in Pound Dollar and made more than an hour to
pay.Finally we got the scalping target and we left a tiny piece to close
with trailing three and half hours later.
You may find useful the below information for your trading next week.
CFTC commitment of traders released September 11, 2015:
EUR shorts 81K vs 68K shorts prior week
GBP shorts 18K vs. 11K shorts prior week
JPY shorts 7K vs 16K shorts prior week
CAD shorts 49K vs 55K shorts prior week
CHF shorts 7K vs. 8K shorts prior week
AUD shorts 53K vs 56K shorts prior week
NZD shorts 12K vs 8K shorts prior week
The data is from the close of business on September 8, 2015
EUR shorts increase by 13K
JPY shorts move closer to square and near the years smallest net
position of -5.4K. JPY positions have not been net positive since Oct
16, 2012 week.
Our primary target to finish the week in green was achieved again today.
I gave the title to the video consistent profitability.
Scalping didn't started well today.
I have entered in a ranging pair the eurjpy.
I
had a counter trend signal ten minutes before London open wait for the
retracement and entered. The trade went red from the first minutes and
gave an opposite signal.I had a chance to close in breakeven but I
haven;t got a new resistance or support in the trigger chart so I didn't
close.
One hour later I paid the error for 20 pips.
While I
was in the eurjpy trade I took a long signal in pound dollar and sixty
minutes later I got a perfect retracement were I got in long for
intraday trade.
This trade hit in the final stage approx 65 pips. I
close initially 2/3 of the position but while I saw how it was
approaching a resistance in the higher 2 hour time frame I close it
all.
Few minutes later it reversed and dropped 60 pips down,
The moral of the story today is: 1. close to breakeven when you have the chance and 2. don't be greedy.
Another day closed green with nice profit.
The title of the video with the trades consistent profitable.
We had two successful forex scalping today in Pound dollar.
The first setup came after pound news in the morning ,industrial production.
The pair moved fast to south and we took the retracement in the borders of our Tokyo box.
The
first scalping target came in three minutes which is the ideal
scalping time.Trailing stop activated but unfortunately it dint lasted
and hitted in less than thirty minutes,
Then the pair made another attempt to break the 50 area and we short it again.
This scalping took over one hour and we close it with just 5 plus pips. It reversed just after we close the trade.
The other two pairs we watch didn't gave descent setups and signal in the European morning with retracements.
We managed to remain green today too and that is what matters.
Conclusion
Ideal
scalping time is less than ten minutes if a pair sticks in a specific
level for a period of an hour or so it will reverse.Some people call
this pattern 1 2 3 reject.
The three pairs we watch everyday and their signals today
forex scalping is not easy.
Today
I felt like the man going to the casino feeding the slot machine and
the time he gets disappointment and leaves his place the next guy hits
the jackpot.
This thing happened in the morning with eurjpy and
gbpjpy trades. The moment they reversed I was so tired to follow.They
gave 100 pips plus.
In the European morning I have took a wrong short trade in gbpusd and I sweat to close it to breakeven.
Then
in the afternoon I took a long signal in eurjpy waited the retracement.
Enter in the trade in correct position . Then the pair three times it
almost touched the first target of 10 pips with 9.5 pips and dropped.
The third time I closed it to breakeven and saved my stop loss since it dropped 40 pips entering in a range period.
So I gave up for the day at least I didn't ended red and wrote a part in the video about consistent profitability.
the Law of large number and how it impacts your trading
Before anything else, you must understand the law of large number.
what’s that?
The
law of large numbers is a theorem that describes the result of
performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the
law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials
should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as
more trials are performed. – Probability Theory
For a trader, this means you need a large number of trades for your edge to play out.
You will not be consistently profitable every week, taking 5 trades a month.
Why?
Because
according to the law of large number, results are random in the short
run, but will be closer to the expected value in the long run.
Focus on whether what you are doing is right, not on the random nature of any single trade’s outcome. – Richard Dennis
What is consistency?
Since the law of large number requires a certain number of trades for your edge to play out, how does it impact your trading?
forex
scalping – Trading at very high frequency, like 10,000 trades a month.
You can expect to be profitable in most of the months, or even everyday
like Virtu Financial.
Day trader – Trading an average of 3 – 5 times a day, you can expect to be profitable in most of the quarters.
Swing/position trader – Trading an average of 5 – 15 times a month, you can expect to be profitable in most of the years.
The more trades you put on during a shorter period of time, the faster your edge will play out.
But without an edge in the markets, the more trades you put on, leads to blowing up your account even faster.
forex scalping yesterday brought very poor results in an extremely slow market.
Initially
in the London open I have lost an entry to a valid signal to gbpjpy by
two pips since my limit order didn't trigger and the pair produced a
very nice run (....pips)
Late in the US session I gave a short
order in the pair which I left it open during the Tokyo session but I
have close it with +5 pips early in the morning while I saw it
reversing.
gbpusd gave the signal very early in the morning so I dint touch it.
eurjpy produced one of the slowest sessions I have ever seen.
I
have attempted a long 15 minutes before London close but the pair
reached 9.5 pips in four hours of trading without hitting my scalping
target and reversed so I closed it by loosing five pips.
Then I
reverse it and left it open in the Tokyo session achieving the 10 pips
target but the third part of the order stop out early in the morning.
I even forgot to open the mic while I was explaining in the video.Sorry for this.
forex
scalping software with in-dependable feed from broker.This is the
third part of seven steps in forex scalping success.forex scalping
demands to know your tools of the trade.
A professional trading
platform in-dependable from the broker you have your account and
separate market feed ensures that, what you see in your charts is
correct and precise.
The problem is that software costs and feed is in a monthly subscription basis.
That means that the above combination is not suggested for newbie traders with small accounts.
Of
course that doesn't mean you can't try them in demo or trial accounts
and have in your mind what is out there to help you, if you succeed in
your first steps and you decide to do professional trading for a living.
A
lot of software applications are available from brokerage firms and
independent vendors claiming varied functions to assist traders. The
deciding factor to select the right product should be based on the
product functionality best fitting one’s trading needs. Novice traders
who are entering the trading world can select software applications that
have a good reputation with required basic functionality at a nominal
cost, while experienced traders can explore individual products
selectively to meet their more specific criteria.
Most brokerage
firms today offer free or premium trading software applications to
individual clients when they open a brokerage account. The bundled
software applications, offering a wide variety of trade, research, and
analysis functions, are used as a prominent sales-pitch to the trader
client. They also boast features like in-built technical indicators,
fundamental analysis numbers, integrated applications for trade
automation, news, and alert features. We will examine some of the most
widely used, based on features
I included in the list software for stocks also.
Sorry for my English I am trying to improve by use them daily.
See the video below
My
trading room setup one main pc with two 22'' screens networked with an
auxiliary (clone of the main) notebook all controlled by one wired
mouse and one keyboard with Synergy. Preferred platform ninjatrader
connected with one of the suggested ECN brokers
Hello traders,
Forex scalping didn't start well in the morning.
Pound dollar and pound yen had a party last night in the Tokyo session with no fresh signals.
Euro
yen had a party last night after deploying a bear flag but had a fresh
signal and a divergence pointing up.So I took the trade with the usual
stop of 20 pips.
As you know in trading nothing works 100% of the time, so trade went sour and our stop loss is hit.
Since
it was NFP day I knew it will produce weird and choppy trading so I
closed the platform and I was looking for a chance after the release to
take back what the market charged me for the morning counter trend
trade.
Approx one and half hour after DOW open I have spotted a
very tide range in gbpjpy with repetitive short and long signals in my
main chart.
I spotted a fakey breakout upside and the moment the
pair reversed and broke the opposite support I enter in the trade with
tide stop loss.
I took the cream of the trade with the momentum hitting approx 50 pips took my losses back and some nice profit.
Everything is written in the video and trades are on the pictures with remarks.
Have a nice weekend.
The day was difficult initially because the two first trades hit stop loss.
GBPUSD
and GBPJPY had volatility during the night and they didn't produced
fresh signals in the London open.In addition we had pound news.
EURJPY on the contrary had a very narrow range during Tokyo and ranging for long hours.
The pair produced a fresh signal a few minutes before London open so I waited carefully for a retracement.
The
retracement came and I enter the short trade.The minutes was passing
and the pattern I call crocodile formed the bollingers in the trigger
chart contracted and inner support and resistances formed .
The breakout was eminent and it would be a large one after so many hours of ranging.
The
pair violated the resistance to the upside and due to high probability
of breakout I went long to the fresh long signal loosing 5 pips in the
first trade .I was taking also a counter trend trade to my higher time
frame chart.Some minutes passed and the momentum wasn't there.The pair
started to fall slowly ,the pair pierced the support inside the range
again and decided to try for third and last time short again .The
procedure of the three trades took approx one and half hour.
Placed the stop loss ten pips above and closed the platform .
I have checked again in London close to find 162 pips in my intraday trade.Finally closed 158.
Thursday have statistically very good intraday trades and they are consider from the trending days of the week.
eurjpy trigger and main chart with marked trades on them and remarks
Main chart eurjpy
The other to pairs I watch daily gbpusd and gbpjpy
Hello Traders,
Today the market was choppy and was lucking momentum.
We
took two scalps.One in gbpusd during the European session approx 100
minutes after London open and one in the American session in eurjpy
approx 45 minutes after DOW open.
In the first trade gbpusd gave
as the most appropriate conditions since it moved in a very narrow range
during Tokyo and gave us a signal after London open.
We wait with patience the retracement breath I like to call it and we entered in the trade.
The
entry wasn't ideal but the pair gave us the scalping target after
approx 20 minutes.Then the trailing begun and in a point we saw 25 +
pips .After this we saw a support forming ,an opposite signal in the
midle trigger chart and we wisely decided to take all the traing profit
and get out.As you see in the chart below we did wqell because the pair
reversed.
We didn't touch eurjpy and gbpjpy in the European
session since both of them moved in wide ranges during Tokyo.Approx 150
pips for gbpjpy 100 pips for eurjpy.
Then in the American session
eurjpy broke the Tokyo range (Archimedes breakout)entered in a small
retracement of 10 pips from the brake and took the forex scalping target
as you see in the pictures for the two thirds of the position.
Left the rest on trailing but while the trailing stop reached the entry point eurjpy retraced and hit the stop loss.
So with these two trades we secured our primary target to remain consistent profitable one more day.
The
first trade is writen on video were I explain what I call Archimedes
breakout (Tokyo range breakout) and the second is in pictures below.
Hello,
Today forex scalping was more smoothly than yesterday.
GBPUSD
and EURJPY responded quickly approx one hour after the London open and
start trading south.We took short signals in both but none of them took a
breath .
The GBPUSD has probed lower in trading today - moving below the low prices from July and August in the process.
Approx 80 pips for pound dollar and 95 pips for euro yen.
Waiting with patience a retracement came in pound dollar three and half hour after London open in the median line.
Then
a resistance is formed and the moment a double top formed in the
trigger chart I have entered a short trade with nine pips stop loss
ignoring a long signal whic was counter trend in the higher time frame
chart.
Forex scalping target achieved quickly in less than 15 minutes and then left the rest with trailing stop.
Knowing
that at 7.30 EST the economic announcement of Canadian GDP will
influence the dollar I didn't gamble the profits and close the trade at
25 plus pips even if I saw 36 in a moment.
The problem is that
there have been two breaks below this area. The first failed. The
ensuing correction stalled near the 200 day MA at the 1.53635 (the high
stalled at 1.53685). The second probe moved to new day lows and is back
up testing that break area (between 1.5329-38). If the price can not
stay below, the patience of the sellers may wain and the seller could
switch to buyers instead.
ISM data is due. So risk is increased.
The market will be looking for clues from the data. A more bullish
number and new lows can be expected. If weaker, the sellers will likely
become buyers again and we should see a rotation higher in the pair.
The whole trade is written in the video from the beginning .
Here is the three pairs I watch every day with remarks on them.
gbpusd
eurjpy
gbpjpy
As
long as you are new to trading and you are learning always look at the
higher time frame and take your scalps and trades to the direction they
dictate.
Counter trend trades are dangerous to your account and psychology.
Don't try to catch bottoms and top of the mountains you will bankrupt your account.
